Home/Home HT/FT and Shots on Target Share Over the Last Five Games
A home side's recent shots-on-target dominance lifts its Home/Home rate sharply. Nearly all of that lift is already in the 1X2 price, and the leftover edge is small.
Written by Seo-yeon HanHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Halldóra Sigurðardóttir, Editor-in-Chief
| matches with 5 earlier games for both teams | 103,929 |
|---|---|
| Home/Home rate across all of them | 26.4% |
| Home/Home when the home SOT share was 70%+ | 44.6% |
| gap vs the price-matched expectation at 70%+ | +2.5 pts |
- Market
- HT/FT
- The question
- Does a home side's shots-on-target share over its previous five league games tell you how often it leads at half-time and wins?
- Sample
- 22 European league divisions, 2000/01-2025/26 seasons with match statistics; 103,929 matches in which both teams had played at least 5 earlier league games that season
Before I think about when a match will turn, I want to know who has been controlling games. Shots-on-target share over the previous five league games is a quick read of that, and it is one of the first things I check before anything goes on my half time full time tips page. This sheet uses pre-match form only: each home side's share from its previous five games, never the stat line of the match being priced.
The headline is clear but modest. Across 103,929 matches, Home/Home landed 26.4% of the time. When the home side's share was 70%+, that rose to 44.6%, against 42.1% implied by matched prices. The stat tracks the outcome closely, but the market tracks it almost as closely. The gap at the top end is +2.5 pts.
Stat line 1Shots-on-target share moves Home/Home, and prices follow
Each row pairs the Home/Home rate you would expect from the pre-match prices with what actually happened. Because no HT/FT prices exist in this data, the expected figure comes from matches with the same 1X2 and goals pricing, which makes it a model rather than a quoted number. Read the dots together: from under 35% up to 60-65%, actual and expected almost touch.
In the under-35% band, Home/Home landed 19.2% (±0.8) against 19.3% expected. In the middle 50-55% band it was 26.4% against 26.5%. Across most of the range, the market has already read the shots.
Share = home shots on target / (for + against) over its previous 5 league games.
View the data: home/home: price-matched vs actual
| Price-matched | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35% (9,323 matches) | 19.3% | 19.2% | ±0.8 |
| 35-45% (26,779 matches) | 22.3% | 21.7% | ±0.5 |
| 45-50% (16,787 matches) | 24.6% | 24.5% | ±0.7 |
| 50-55% (19,686 matches) | 26.5% | 26.4% | ±0.6 |
| 55-60% (13,503 matches) | 29.2% | 29.7% | ±0.8 |
| 60-65% (9,326 matches) | 32.2% | 32.4% | ±0.9 |
| 65-70% (4,793 matches) | 36.5% | 38.5% | ±1.4 |
| 70%+ (3,732 matches) | 42.1% | 44.6% | ±1.6 |
The separation only appears at the dominant end. The 65-70% band landed 38.5% against 36.5%, and 70%+ landed 44.6% (±1.6, 3,732 matches) against 42.1%. Fair Home/Home odds shorten from 5.20 to 2.24 across the range, so the stat changes the price a great deal while leaving only a thin edge on top.
Stat line 2Dominant home sides rarely lose, and often win late
This is where the timing story sits. Each bar splits matches into four outcomes: Home/Home, a home win from level or behind at the break, a draw, and an away win. As the share rises, the bars shift steadily towards the home side.
Away wins fall from 38.9% in the under-35% band to 13.3% at 70%+. The part I watch most closely is the slow-burn home win. Wins from level or behind at half-time rise from 14.6% to 21.4% of matches.
View the data: how the home side finishes, by sot share
| Home/Home | Home win from level or behind | Draw at full time | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35% | 19.2% | 14.6% | 27.2% | 39.0% |
| 35-45% | 21.7% | 16.2% | 27.2% | 34.9% |
| 45-50% | 24.5% | 16.9% | 27.3% | 31.3% |
| 50-55% | 26.4% | 18.3% | 26.9% | 28.4% |
| 55-60% | 29.7% | 18.8% | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| 60-65% | 32.4% | 20.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% |
| 65-70% | 38.5% | 20.8% | 21.6% | 19.1% |
| 70%+ | 44.7% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 13.3% |
For a HT/FT bettor, that second segment is the warning. A dominant home side wins from level or behind in about one match in five, and every one of those is a losing Home/Home ticket. Strong shot form tells you who is likely to finish on top. It says much less about whether they will already be ahead at the interval.
Stat line 3The full-time home win only breaks even at best prices
The HT/FT price is not in the data, so this chart covers the full-time leg only: a flat stake on the home win in each band. It is a sense check on whether the market leaves value where the shots point. Across all matches, the return was −5.8% at the standard price and −1.7% at the best price.
The HT/FT price is not available; this is the full-time leg only.
View the data: backing the home win in each band
| Standard price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 35% | −7.9% | −3.1% |
| 35-45% | −7.7% | −3.3% |
| 45-50% | −7.9% | −3.8% |
| 50-55% | −5.5% | −1.5% |
| 55-60% | −4.5% | −0.7% |
| 60-65% | −1.7% | +2.0% |
| 65-70% | −0.7% | +2.8% |
| 70%+ | −0.8% | +2.6% |
| All matches | −5.8% | −1.7% |
The bars climb with share. At 70%+ the return was −0.8% at the standard price and +2.6% at the best price. That is a price-shopping margin, not a system. A small positive return depends on finding the best price, and it could easily disappear in a different sample.
Stat line 4The 65%+ gap holds across levels and eras
A small edge is only worth respecting if it survives being split. The table groups all home sides with a 65%+ share: 8,525 matches, Home/Home 41.2% against 38.9% expected, fair odds 2.43. Top flights produced 45.9% against 43.5%, and the second tiers and below 34.6% against 32.6%.
By era, the gap was +2.5 points in 2000/01-2015/16 and +2.0 points in 2016/17-2025/26. The direction stays the same each time, though it narrows slightly in the later period.
| Group | Matches | Home/Home | Expected | Gap (pts) | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 65%+ | 8,525 | 41.2% | 38.9% | +2.3 | 2.43 |
| Top flights | 4,967 | 45.9% | 43.5% | +2.4 | 2.18 |
| Second tiers and below | 3,558 | 34.6% | 32.6% | +2.0 | 2.89 |
| 2000/01-2015/16 | 3,239 | 41.2% | 38.7% | +2.5 | 2.43 |
| 2016/17-2025/26 | 5,286 | 41.1% | 39.1% | +2.0 | 2.43 |
My main caveat is that most of the shot signal is already in the 1X2 price, and gaps of this size can move with sample and era. The older seasons also lean heavily on English, Scottish and big-five leagues, so the earlier era is less broad than the headline coverage of 22 divisions suggests.
Sheet verdict
- Price the stat first
Below a 65% share, actual and expected Home/Home rates sit almost on top of each other, as in the 50-55% band at 26.4% against 26.5%. If a mid-range share is your whole reason for a bet, the market has already priced it.
- Respect the slow burn
Even at 70%+, home wins from level or behind made up 21.4% of matches. Before taking Home/Home, ask whether this side tends to start fast or tends to grind out late winners.
- Shop for the best price
In the 70%+ band, the full-time home win returned −0.8% at the standard price and +2.6% at the best price. Any thin edge depends on taking the best available number.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the home team lead at half-time and win?
Across 103,929 matches where both sides had five earlier league games, Home/Home landed 26.4% of the time. That works out to fair odds of 3.79.
Does shots-on-target form predict a Home/Home result?
It tracks the outcome strongly. Home/Home rises from 19.2% under a 35% share to 44.6% at 70%+. However, the prices already imply 42.1% in that top band, so the edge is small.
What are fair HT/FT odds for a dominant home side?
For home sides with a 70%+ shots-on-target share over their last five games, fair Home/Home odds were 2.24. Across the wider 65%+ group they were 2.43.
I'm Seo-yeon Han, based in Seoul, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at fixedmatchesvip.com — my focus is the shape of a match across its two halves, and the exact moment the thing tips over.
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